Moneyball

The AI Supercycle: Real Growth or the Start of a Hard Landing?

Good morning folks.

Dec 22, 2025 • Felix Winckler

Heads up: rule30 - the AI research lab for venture - just released its probabilistic decision engine.

Dear friends,

Dec 4, 2025 • Felix Winckler

October 2025

Who Owns the Stack? Capital, Code, and Control in the Age of AI

Good morning folks.

Oct 31, 2025 • Felix Winckler

The New Geography of Compute

Scheming isn’t just for politicians

Oct 10, 2025 • Felix Winckler

September 2025

rule30 #4: Pirated data puts labs in uncharted waters

Export rules, jobs, and hallucinations

Sep 13, 2025 • Guy

August 2025

rule30 #3: Money, money, money

Trump’s AI plan, data centre dreams, and gold medal models

Aug 9, 2025 • Guy

July 2025

rule30 #2: AGI Goes to Washington

Senators reject regulation ban, alignment is still tough, and AI slop goes mainstream

Jul 12, 2025 • Guy and Harry Law

June 2025

rule30 #1: Back and under new management

Meta spends on Scale, superintelligence, and reasoning models

Jun 14, 2025 • Koble and Harry Law

January 2025

The Dangers of Planning

On The Objective Paradox

Jan 18, 2025 • Koble

December 2024

Show Me The Money

On Incentives

Dec 7, 2024 • Koble

October 2024

The Immortal Game

On openings, middlegames, and endgames

Oct 26, 2024 • Koble

September 2024

The Dark Side Of Statistics

On Goodhart's Law

Sep 28, 2024 • Koble